Monday, October 30, 2006

I'm a Charlie Brown Democrat

Be still my still beating heart. Wait. Let me rephrase that. Beat my still beating heart. I know polls are like oh so many women who promised so much and then never delivered but this time I have to have hope. Without hope I'd have to look for a nice spot to sit down in front of a train right after election day should things go badly for the Democrats. New polls came out and while I may be setting myself up, like Charlie Brown running to kick the football from Lucy, I am getting a bit uncurmudgeonish. Take a look at the new polls. How could you not be a bit optimistic? Sen. Macacawitz, a.k.a George Allen, looks to be falling behind Jim Webb. Sen. Rick "man on dog sex" Santorum is headed for a huge defeat. Jon Tester is going to send Republican Senator Conrad Burns into a much needed retirement. In Maryland, Ben Cardin is going to end Republican Michael Steele's political career. I think Harold Ford is going to pull out one of the greatest uphill battles in American history. In Missouri, Republican Jim Talent, looking too much like ferret-face Maj. Frank Burns may beat Claire McCaskill, although he shouldn't, but only because Missouri is as politically odd as Minnesota. Heath Schuler and Ken Lucas look to beat incumbent Republican congressmen. In Illinois Rep. Melissa Bean is ahead of her Republican challenger and former Iraq helicopter veteran and double-amputee Tammy Duckworth is slightly ahead of a Tom Delay protegee. Here's the big news though - in my district the 10th congressional district the challenger, Dan Seals is ahead of the empty suit and invisible congressman Republican Mark Kirk. Wow.

I know these polls aren't entirely reliable but they are something. They are at least a snapshot of what is going on in the various races. All I know is this election night I am going to be stocked up on chips, dip and cold drinks. Here are my predictions for next Tuesday. Let's see how my cranky crystal ball does.

Pennsylvania: Casey beats Santorum
New Jersey: Menendez beats Kean
Virginia: Webb beats Allen
Montana: Tester beats Burns
Missouri: Talent beats McCaskill (edge to Talent but McCaskill could win no question)
Tennessee: Ford beats Corker
Maryland: Cardin beats Steele

Senate goes Democratic with Democrats winning 6 or 7 of the seven races that will decide control. A six seat pick up would be like pulling an inside straight to win. Seven for 7 would be like pulling inside Royal Flush to win and it could easily happen.

As for the House, the Democrats take over gaining 25-30 seats. The other prediction, lesser for some but huge for me, is that Dan Seals beats Republican incumbent (a.k.a. Bush's shoe shine boy) Mark Kirk here in my home district. Taking over the House would be satifying. Taking over the Senate would be satisfying. Having Republican Mark Kirk lose his seat would be satisfying. When all three happen next tuesday I'm going to be so satisfied I may even change the name of my blog to "The Temporarily Happy Curmudgeon." So feel free to stop by and watch the Republicans get hit with Hurricane Cranky. Here's hoping Lucy doesn't pull the football away again.


Anonymous Mark / Howell said...

"The Beverly Hillbillies"

Come and listen to a story of "Duke" Cunningham
Republican in Congress, should have took it on the lam
Got money and a yacht, and his life was good
Now he's sitting in jail, eating prison food

Come and listen to a story of Tom Delay
He stole a lot of money but denies it to this day
Him and his good buddy, Jack Abramoff
Well he quit in disgrace, and from Texas he took off

Come and listen to a story of Mark Foley
He liked little boys, didn't cotton to girlies
On the internet, young boys were his feast
When he got caught, he blamed it on a priest

And now it's time to say goodbye to Delay and all his friends
And they would like to thank you for the money that rolled in
You're all invited back next week to this locality
When the Democrats take over the Capital city

10:34 AM  
Anonymous scott said...

On the day the Foley scandal broke, I told our mutual merc trading buddy that the Dems win 30 house seats and 7 Senate.

I stand by those comments today.


10:35 AM  
Blogger Crankyboy said...

Good call. Let's prepare for a celebratory rib and beer dinner.

11:12 AM  
Blogger Cranky's Wife said...

Nice post honey but you'd better remove that line about oh so many women.....

1:24 PM  
Blogger Crankyboy said...

The end of the line is that they didn't deliver. I did not, in the words of Austin Powers, have "the pleasure."

1:37 PM  
Blogger d.K. said...

I think you're wrong (sadly) the Senate races in Tennessee and Virginia. I think the House will go Dem, but by fewer seats, perhaps twenty. I've read the polls too, but I also felt my jaw drop painfully in 2000 and 2004 when the chips looked up. And don't worry, you're still the quintessential curmudgeon...

7:10 PM  
Blogger Crankyboy said...

Tennessee is really more hope than anything else. Webb will win in Virginia. Bet a dinner on it?

7:18 PM  
Blogger d.K. said...

You're on. And one I hope I'll be shelling out for.

7:26 AM  

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